Tories and Reform Deploy Expectation Management Ahead of Locals Campaign – Guido Fawkes

Tories and Reform Deploy Expectation Management Ahead of Locals Campaign

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1,641 councillors will be elected in 23 Councils on 1 May. Badenoch is in the process of launching a muted Tory local election campaign. Last week the party unveiled a new slogan: “Vote Labour, Get Trash” in reference to the ongoing bin crises in Labour-held councils. A LOTO source deploys strong expectation management:

“It’s going to be very difficult. The last time these councils were up in 2021 Boris was riding the vaccine bounce so the Conservative vote was riding high. We’ve just come out of 14 years in govt and our worst ever performance at a general election, so it’s a tough situation. That being said, we have won more local council by-elections than all the other parties since July, and we have a very strong message on how Conservative councils outperform other parties.”

Senior Tories in CCHQ say it will be a “massacre.” Electoral Calculus’ MRP has Reform on the same vote share of 25% with Labour on 18%. Factoring in the delays the Tories are set to lose a bit less than half of their councillors up for election:

The seats up for election, last fought in 2021 in the midst of the Boris bounce, are currently held as below:

• Conservative: 940
• Labour: 290
• LibDem: 220
• Independent: 120
• Green: 40
• Other: 40

Farage is launching with a rally in Birmingham which Reform says will see 10,000 attendees. Billed as the largest rally in modern political history…

Four mayoral elections are also taking place. Reform has set a ludicrously low public target of 200 council seats and says it is “aiming” to have a candidate in every seat – though that is unlikely. The upper end of expectations from senior Reform sources could be 500-600. Labour’s vote share for remaining seats is higher now that election delays have come in – despite that the party is set to lose seats. A government source tells Guido the election delay strategy is intended to limit Reform to one new mayor with each election round. Reform’s stakes are highest here – the locals will be crucial to prove Farage has the momentum despite losing 20% of his MPs…