++ Spring Statement Live Blog ++ – Guido Fawkes

++ Spring Statement Live Blog ++

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Reeves is delivering the spring statement. Live updates below…

UPDATE: Impact assessment of health and disability benefit reforms from DWP published here. 250,000 people will be driven into ‘relative poverty’ which includes 50,000 children…

• Reeves says only change Tories can work on is changing party leadership.
• Employment Rights Bill (referred to in Labour as the Union Bill) not reflected in the OBR’s forecast. OBR says “given these potentially significant impacts, we will incorporate a central estimate of the aggregate impacts of the policy package in our next forecast.“
• Rachel comes back.
• Welfare changes were rushed. No mention of PIP in Labour manifesto. It’s divisive in their rank and file.
• Will she scrap the absurd Chagos Deal and put that behind armed forces.
• Speaker Hoyle takes issue with Stride saying Reeves fiddled the fiscal rules.
• Chancellor has created a black hole. She is a gambler with fiddled fiscal targets and way too little headroom.
• Interest rates higher for longer because of her choices.
• Tory amendments got voted down to save some from NI increase.
• Even a basic economist knows that if you tax more you get less. She taxed jobs and wealth creation. Clobbered big and small businesses.
• Black hole was invented. A smoke screen.
• Unemployment set to rise in OBR projections.
• Reeves fond of world having changed. Country was growing at fastest rate in G7. Growth halved in this year. Cut in two as consequence of Reeves choices.
• Emergency budget.
• Stride responds
• Real household disposable income to rise over £500 by end of year.
• Growth projections: 1% 2025, 1.9% (up 0.1% on autumn) 2026, 1.8%  (up 0.3%) 2027, 1.7% (up 0.2%) 2028, 1.8% ( up 0.2%) 2029.
• Planning and Infrastructure Bill going through Commons.
• Bridget announced this week £600 million for construction worker training and ten new technical excellence colleges.
• Growth policies and planning reforms is extra £3.4 billion revenue by 29/30.
• NPPF changes from DPM reintroduce mandatory housing targets and grey belt, OBR says reforms will increase real GDP by 0.2% in 29/30. 0.4% of GDP in 10 years.
• Defence Growth Board created.
• “Defence industrial superpower”
• £2 billion increased capacity for UK Export Finance.
• Better homes for military families in four constituencies.
• Ringfenced budget for defence innovation, streamlined procurement system. More contracts for SMEs.
• Min 10% of MoD equipment budget to be spent on new tech. Creates demand and business opportunities.
• £2.2 billion for MoD in next financial year. Downpayment on 2.5% GDP by 27 plan.
• OBR confirmed to have revised growth forecast from 2% at Budget to 1% now. Reeves ‘not satisfied with these numbers.’ Says she will unlock growth with projects and cutting regulation.
• Three interest rate cuts since GE. OBR forecasts that CPI inflation will be 3.2% this year then to 2.1% next, and meeting 2% in 27 onwards.
• Capital investment. £100 billion announced in budget. Not cutting it. Increase of £2 billion per year compared with Budget.
• Day-to-day spending above inflation for forecast period.
• Voluntary exit schemes, probation efficiencies, foster care investment all part of leaner government drive. £3.5 billion day to day savings from that by 29/30. £6.1 billion total in 29/30.
• £2 billion by end of decade from civil service efficiency drives so far. £3.25 billion investment through “transformation fund” to bring down costs of running government.
• Foreign aid cut will go to defence spending.
• Budget fixed foundations of economy. More NHS appointments and waiting lists down. Settlements for devolved admins. Breakfast clubs.
• UC credit health element will be cut by 50% and then frozen. UC will rise from £92 in 25/6 to 106 in 29/30.
• Welfare: too many people out of work. OBR said package will save £4.8 billion in welfare budget. Reflects final adjustments to the package.
• Tax avoidance investment: HMRC capabilities and chasing to hike revenues by £1 billion, £7.5 billion to be collected total.
• No tax increases in this statement.
• OBR forecasts:
  • Attacks Mini Budget to begin with. People continue to feel the effects two and a half years later.
  • Stability rule: before statement budget would have been in deficit by £4.1 billion in 29/30. Due to cost of borrowing rising. Steps today mean ‘headroom’ restored in full. 36.1 billion deficit in 2024/5 to surplus of £6.0 billion in 27/8, £7.1 in 28/9 and £9.9 in 29/30. Meeting rule two years early.
  • £105.2 billion on debt servicing to be spent this year.
• Reeves says full spending review in June then budget in Autumn in line with commitment to one major fiscal event per year.
• Introduction: Reeves goes through ‘work of change’ so far. World changing before our eyes. Borrowing costs rise across economies in unstable world, active government needed.