OBR’s March Forecast – Guido Fawkes

IN FULL: OBR’s March Forecast

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The Office for Budget Responsibility’s growth forecast remains a hard pill to swallow for the Chancellor. It slashed its growth projection for 2025-26 from 2% at the Budget to just 1% now. While the Government’s planning reforms offer a slight productivity boost of 0.2% by 2029, the overall growth for 2023-2029 is still 0.5% below what the OBR had forecast in the Budget, and productivity levels are now more than 1% lower.

More points:

• “If the projected recovery in UK productivity growth fails to materialise, and it continues to track its recent trend, then output would be 3.2 per cent lower and the current budget would be 1.4 per cent of GDP in deficit by the end of the decade.“
• Rayner’s Employment Rights Bill not included in forecast.
• Planning and Infrastructure Bill not in forecast.
• “Tax as a share of GDP is forecast to rise from 35.3 per cent this year to a historic high of 37.7 per cent in 2027-28 and remain at a high level for the rest of the forecast.” Historic…
• Monthly inflation up to a peak of 3.8 per cent in July 2025.
• “A 0.6 percentage point increase in Bank Rate and gilt yield expectations across the forecast would eliminate current balance headroom.”

Read the report in full below: