Mathieu Vaillancourt: How blue-collar Conservatism is back in Ontario’s politics

Mathieu Vaillancourt is a writer with a degree in International development from the University of Ottawa.

Doug Ford may not be someone well-known in the realm of international politics – unless you regularly watch American cable news – but he’s likely to be the strongest Canadian politician when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump.

Being the premier of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province comes with significance, especially while the Canadian federal landscape is in a general election campaign and under a caretaker government until federal election day on April 28.

A relatively decentralised federation, Canada, by design, has plenty of devolved provincial powers. Competencies like education are fully managed by the provinces, as there is no federal department of education in Canada, and healthcare too is, in great parts, a provincial jurisdiction.

To provide a comparison to British politics, this would be as if the United Kingdom were composed of ten provinces that all have the powers of the Scottish government, with even more devolution in terms of tax-raising. Provincial governments in Canada have significant tax-levying powers; they can have their own sales tax, and have a portion of income tax.

Ford’s rise to power has been remarkable. As the older brother and campaign manager of the late Rob Ford, who served as Toronto’s mayor between 2010 and 2014, he learnt the ropes of politics. Rob was infamous in foreign media and even lampooned by American late-night comedy shows for his substance abuse issues during his mayoral term. Sadly, he passed away from cancer at 46-years-old, a few years after leaving office in 2016. Doug Ford’s entry into provincial politics was sudden. In 2018, he became the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario after his predecessor’s abrupt resignation, winning the party leadership by a narrow margin and becoming premier of Ontario a few months later with his first majority, sweeping the Toronto suburban belt from the Ontario Liberal Party.

Although Ford’s first two years as premier were challenging, the Covid-19 pandemic helped him regain popularity to win another majority mandate in 2022. This year he secured a third consecutive majority with a higher proportion of the popular vote, and roughly the same number of seats as in 2022, running on a platform to “protect Ontario” against tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.

Ford’s secret to success lies in his business experience. Before entering politics, he managed the Ford family’s printing business in suburban Chicago, Illinois, located not too far from Chicago O’Hare Airport. It appears to have honed his negotiation skills, making him a strong advocate for Ontario’s interests in the US and someone who can speak “American”.

The power behind his political prowess is through what Ontarians call “Ford Nation”: a populist conservative coalition comprising new Canadians living in the suburbs, middle-class suburbanites, working-class individuals, and rural and small-town voters who typically support conservative candidates.

In the last two Ontario general elections, several trade unions in the construction and industrial sectors, as well as police and firefighter unions, have backed Ford’s party. We also see this trend replicated in federal politics of blue-collar conservatism, as the Conservative Party of Canada just received the support of the Canadian Boilermakers Union for the first time in the Canadian federal election, marking a historical endorsement, at least at a federal level.

It seems that some big industrial trade unions are increasingly following the voting habits of their memberships, supporting the Conservatives publicly because they see the traditional ‘labour’ party in Canada (the New Democratic Party) as anti-development and more interested in pleasing university faculty halls than union halls.

This phenomenon presents an intriguing reflection. The man who was once seen as the older brother and campaign manager of the ‘other’ Ford brother 15 years ago – and who lost the Toronto mayoral election in 2014 – has become one of the most important premiers in recent Canadian history and one of the most successful first ministers of Ontario in recent memory after winning three majorities in a row, all with a growing share of the popular vote at every election. The last time this feat happened in Canada’s most populous province was in the 1950s.

Few people in his home province would have predicted this outcome back in 2018. Ontario had non-stop provincial Progressive Conservative rule from 1943 to 1985 – and judging by Doug Ford’s coalition, we may perhaps be back with a “big blue machine” running Ontario politics.