Lord Ashcroft: Reform UK start the battle for Runcorn in pole position

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

The Runcorn and Helsby by-election campaign opens with Reform UK in pole position, according to my survey in the constituency. However, there is time for Labour to close the gap if they can persuade enough of their unhappy 2024 supporters to turn out and vote, the findings suggest.

Voting intention

Reform are ahead of Labour by 40% to 35% when we weight respondents according to their stated likelihood to turn and vote at the by-election, with the Conservatives in third place on 10%. This represents a 20% swing from Labour to Reform since the general election.

However, when we included only those who say they are certain to vote, the Reform lead rises to 9 points (42% to 33%) – a 22% swing since July.

Only just over half (55%) of Labour’s general election voters say they will definitely vote, compared to 78% of 2024 Reform voters and 70% of Tories. Labour’s chances of holding the seat therefore depend on persuading as many of possible of their supporters from last July to return to the ballot box.

Labour’s performance

Labour’s challenge at the by-election is highlighted by the fact that more of their 2024 voters disapprove of the government’s performance since July (47%) than approve of it (44%). More than 3 in 10 of them (31%) say they strongly disapprove of the party’s performance in office.

The figures are fractionally better for Keir Starmer himself, with 47% of 2024 Labour voters approving of his performance as prime minister and 46% disapproving. Overall, however, 61% of voters in the constituency said they disapproved, as did 63% when it came to the performance of the Labour government overall.

Those who voted Labour in 2024 were much more likely to say the government had been worse than they expected (43%, including 29% saying it had been much worse) than better (13%), while 41% thought they had been about the same as they expected.

When we asked people to name unprompted something specific the Labour government had done since July, 27% mentioned cuts to the winter fuel allowance – far more than named any other issue. Next on the list were support for Ukraine (7%) and raising taxes (6%).

 Most important issues

When we asked what the most important issues facing the country, the most common answers were immigration and asylum (with 34% naming in their top two), the cost of living (30%), the economy and jobs (28%) and the NHS (24%). A quarter mentioned defence, security or foreign affairs.

Immigration and asylum was by far the most important issue for those intending to vote Reform in the by-election (66% mentioned it unprompted). The economy and jobs and the cost of living were next on their list.

For those intending to vote Labour, the top priorities were the NHS, the cost of living and the economy.

Do Labour have a plan?

 Fewer than a quarter (24%) of voters in the constituency, including only 41% of 2024 Labour voters, said they thought Labour had the right plan and that it would lead to things getting better. Three in ten, including nearly a quarter (23%) of 2024 Labour voters, said they thought the party had the wrong plan and it would lead to things getting worse. Nearly 3 in 10 of Labour’s general election voters (28%), and 36% overall, said they thought the party didn’t have a plan at all.

Best prime minister and economic team

Asked who would make the best prime minister, 34% of Runcorn and Helsby voters named Nigel Farage, compared to 27% for Keir Starmer and 11% for Kemi Badenoch. Just under half (49%) of 2024 Labour voters named Starmer, with nearly 1 in 5 (19%) choosing Farage.

Labour and the Tories were tied when we asked who would do a better job running the economy – Starmer and Rachel Reeves, or Badenoch and shadow chancellor Mel Stride. Nearly half (45%) said “don’t know”. Only 52% of 2024 Labour voters named the Labour team.

Who will win the by-election?

Labour’s task of turning out its reluctant supporters could be hampered by the fact that most of its 2024 voters expect them to win. Six in ten 2024 Labour voters anticipate a Labour victory (as do 79% of those intending to vote Labour in the by-election), with only 19% expecting Reform to take the seat. Those intending to vote Reform also expect their own party to win, but by a smaller margin. Overall, 44% expected a Labour victory, with 26% expecting Reform UK to win.

702 adults were interviewed by telephone in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency between 3 and 12 March 2025. Full data tables are at LordAshcroftPolls.com