Lord Ashcroft: My focus groups from Scotland show frustration with an SNP that many may still vote for

Lord Ashcroft is a businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. His research is at LordAshcroftPolls.com. X/Facebook @LordAshcroft

 My latest round of focus groups takes us to Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen, where we heard from voters whose support tends to waver between Labour and the SNP, or between Labour and the Conservatives.

Our participants were still digesting the news that Nicola Sturgeon was no longer a suspect in the police investigation into the SNP’s finances – a number of them expressed the view that “she must have known something was going on” and “are you telling me she didn’t even ask a question about the camper van?” Some, however, gave her the benefit of the doubt – “if the charges have been dropped, you have to assume she’s innocent”, said one.

Many of those who had moved away from the SNP at the general election said the scandals and surrounding loss of confidence in the party had been the biggest single factor, but others were at work. One was the imperative of getting rid of the Conservatives: “For me it was pure anti-Tory. In my constituency it was only going to be Labour or the SNP, and to get rid of the Tories in Westminster you need more Labour MPs;” “You got the sense that they could take the numbers to Westminster in 2019, be a decent contingent. But with the scandal and the binary decision between and Labour or Tory UK government, a small SNP cohort wasn’t worth it. It was better to have a stronger Labour party.”

“If you want us to be independent, prove to us you can do it”

A number of former SNP voters also said that Scottish independence had become less of a priority – for them, if not for the party. While they were generally still pro-independence, the more chaotic the world seemed, the more distant a prospect independence became and the less attention they wanted their politicians to pay to it: “I’m up for it eventually, but now is not the time to be fighting for it, with the place the way it is. What’s the saying about fiddling while something burns?” “After covid I came back into Glasgow city centre and the streets were a mess, shops were closed, the place was vandalised, there were more junkies walking the streets. There were longer waiting times in the NHS, the education system was screwed. While they were focused on ‘let’s be Scotland’, the actual stuff that could have made Scotland brilliant just got neglected.”

There was also a view that the Scottish Government needed to prove it could run an independent country, rather than blame its failings on the union: “If you want us to be independent, prove to us you can do it. How about we just make things better and build some trust in the nation and get people behind you and show what we can do with the devolved powers that we have. Get the confidence on your side. That just never happened for me.”

More specifically, complaints about the SNP government’s record at Holyrood included falling education standards, drug deaths, potholes, child poverty, police numbers and unfulfilled promises: “Was it 19 years ago that they said they were going to dual the road from Inverness? They got five miles north of Perth and that’s about it;” “They’ve been running Scotland for 18 years and I’ve forgotten anything good that came out of it;” “You just felt the SNP were running out of ideas.”

Some defended the record, mentioning improvements in the care system, the handling of covid, and providing a strong voice for Scotland. There was also a view that Scotland had been held back by underfunding, which they blamed on Westminster.

However, even longstanding SNP voters complained that the party recently seemed to have taken up the wrong priorities, not least the question of gender recognition. As well as being very controversial in itself, many thought that this had detracted from the bread-and-butter issues that needed to be addressed: “Gender reform was making a lot of noise but people here are going out to work, we want our government to focus on everybody, not just a narrow thing like that;” “It was the identity politics. The SNP was focused on things that related to small minorities. The party became really divisive and there was too much focus on that rather than things like the cost of living;” “They got hung up on it a bit too much. It almost became a personal fight for Nicola and her group within the party. They could have said, ‘OK, maybe we need to take a step back’, rather than just saying ‘this is what we’re going to do’.”

Ultimately, the SNP’s implosion went well beyond matters of policy. Division and infighting had become a defining feature after the unity and sense of purpose of a decade ago: “It’s a different party now. The party has been decimated because there’s no trust.”

As a leader to regroup and steady the ship, our participants felt the SNP could do a lot worse than John Swinney, especially after the brief but entertaining interlude of Humza Yousaf (“he had no idea what he was doing. Not a clue”). If they were bemused by his claim to be “Full-On John” after his year rejuvenating on the backbenches, the usual reaction was that he was a “safe pair of hands,” which was what was needed for now: “He’s pretty dull, but when you’re in a crisis you need someone who’s been around a long time and knows it inside out, who’s stable. I think he’s actually done quite a good job of trying to stabilise things so far.” What they did not expect from him, however, was any kind of meaningful change: “He’s been sitting around the cabinet table for 18 years. We’ve already seen the decisions they’ve made. It’s a stretch.” Nor did they anticipate much of a revival in the SNP’s campaigning verve: “If you’re reading something and there’s a quote from him, am I bothering? Whereas with Nicola Sturgeon, I was wanting to know what she had to say;” “He’s probably the right man for the SNP just now, but he’s not the kind of person that people are going to gravitate towards. I don’t think he’s the type of person who could lead an independence campaign, which is what the SNP are really about;” “I think he’s completely interim until someone else steps up.”

Few expected that person to be his deputy, Kate Forbes, for one reason only (“is she the one with the beliefs?” as one participant put it). Some said her religious convictions would put them off supporting her, though often with regret: “She has said she would separate that from her politics, but how could you? And it’s a shame, because aside from that I think she’s pretty credible and seems like she’d be good.” Others thought SNP colleagues, rather than voters, would be the bigger barrier: “She did a great job with the budget and that’s what it’s all about at the end of the day. But she would never get into a position of leadership because people in the party hate her for those views.” (Some noted, wryly, that she might not face the same resistance if she had the same views but a different religion). Our groups could see no other obvious heir to the party’s leadership.

“It feels more hurtful because Labour aren’t meant to be the party that do that”

Complaints about Keir Starmer and the Labour government were vociferous and familiar, largely echoing what we have heard this year in England: rising illegal immigration; welfare cuts; higher taxes, especially employers’ National Insurance and inheritance tax on farmers; cuts in the winter fuel payment; lack of help with rising energy prices; and, especially in Aberdeen, restrictions on the oil and gas industry. Some gave Starmer credit for his international performance, as well as some domestic decisions including the higher minimum wage – and others who were disappointed so far were content to give Labour the benefit of the doubt for now, if only because they could see no alternative.

However, many felt promises had been broken, including a pledge not to return to austerity. The fact that even Labour seemed to be practising austerity didn’t prove it was necessary, only that Labour were too like the Conservatives: “They’ve obviously been handed a really crap situation, but they’ve gone very heavy with all these cuts very quickly. It feels more hurtful because Labour aren’t meant to be the party that do that. You expect it from the Tories;” “I thought Labour were going to give us a little bit of a fresh start, but it hasn’t really happened yet.”

“We’re voting Scottish Labour and getting Westminster priorities”

Nationalists had no such illusions – “choosing between a Tory austerity and Labour austerity is like choosing between gonorrhoea and chlamydia,” as one remarked. “They cut £1 billion worth of funding for a supercomputer at Edinburgh University and gave it to Oxford and Cambridge. In the first three days! So we’re voting Scottish Labour and getting Westminster priorities,” one SNP-Labour switcher noted. There was some debate as to how far Anas Sarwar was speaking up for Scotland within his wider party: “He was challenged in the Scottish Parliament [about UK Labour policies] and you could see him cringing when reporters were throwing in the questions. He just didn’t know what he was allowed to say;” “Does he disagree with some of the decisions being made down south, and that’s why he’s slightly quieter? Or is he doing it internally? I think I’d be reassured if people were speaking their minds rather than just following the leader;” “There have been some disagreements between Anas and the UK party, but some of me thinks that’s staged a little bit. They’re the fights they don’t really care about.”

On the other side of the aisle, even those most sympathetic to the Conservatives had heard little from the party since the election – though some noted Kemi Badenoch’s firmer line on immigration with approval. There was some praise in less expected quarters, however: “They’ve been the only vocal supporters of same-sex spaces for females,” said an SNP-Labour switcher in Glasgow. “I hate to find myself agreeing with the Tories, but that is one issue where I do. People like Russell Findlay, when there are these subcommittees, they actually listen to the experts, they’re not coming from this ‘no debate’ angle. The Tories will actually listen and say what needs to be said.”

“You’re hitting a target but you’re not listening to the people”

None had heard about Badenoch’s position that Britain should abandon the commitment to achieve net zero by 2050, but there was tentative agreement in the north-east that the target was not feasible, even if it was desirable: “I think it’s very shortsighted. Renewable energy isn’t going to pay the bills like oil and gas pays the bills;” “We don’t have the infrastructure in place yet;” “There are so many untapped reserves but we’re actually paying other countries to provide us with gas. It’s ridiculous;” “There are these monster pylons and wind farms getting approved without any proper consultation with the public. Anything gets approved because it ticks the box. You’re hitting a target but you’re not listening to the people.”

Some on the left who were disillusioned with both Labour and the SNP had a soft spot for the Greens (“every so often you’ll see a Green seat and you’re like ‘oh they got in, that’s wonderful’) but there were reservations, especially about the party’s record in office, both at Holyrood and locally: “I agree with what they say they aim to achieve, but they’re so one-dimensional about the sustainability thing. They block developments, they block growth plans. They hold a lot of things back. They could be more balanced in their approach;” “They pushed the gender line so far, and they’re responsible for deeply unpopular traffic schemes around the country. It upsets a lot of people in the middle of towns and cities.” None in our groups were clamouring to have Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater back in government: “She introduced the bottle return scheme. Another disaster.”

What would all this mean for the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections? Despite its 18-year stint in office, its questionable record of delivery and its recent history of scandal and division, many expected the pendulum to swing back to the SNP. For many SNP-Labour switchers – often nationalists who had voted tactically to get the Tories out – UK Labour’s short record in office mattered more than the SNP’s long record running Scotland: “I think until UK Labour started making the mess they’re making now, Sarwar had a good chance to be First Minister. Now I think he’s had it.”

Some also felt that Labour’s decisions at Westminster would give people an excuse to return to the nationalist fold, especially if their 2024 vote was largely tactical: “I think a lot will just default back to their heart again;” “It was hard to vote Labour. A lot of us are just really loyal to the SNP, regardless of how crap stuff was. It’s difficult to vote for any other party.”

Even so, few were prepared to commit themselves a year out: “The SNP need to focus on the day job, how they’re going to earn that trust and respect. I still don’t think they’ve proven beyond doubt that they could lead an independent country;” “I’d love to hear from Scottish Labour, how they’re distinct from UK Labour. They have to show me that they’re invested in actual Scottish interests;” “For me it’s going to be more of a judgment on the UK. I want to see how the next few months pan out.”

 “All the eggs would be just out of reach”

 Finally, with spring in the air, a seasonal question: what would an Easter egg hunt be like if it had been organised by the Labour Party? “They’d invite 100 kids but only have 20 eggs;” “They’d be very, very small eggs. And you’d have to give half of them back.”

What about the Tory Easter egg hunt? “It would be a very lavish affair in a castle. But we wouldn’t be invited. You’d have to be in a certain tax band;” “There would be a bouncer on the door to decide who gets in. And you’d have to pay for your own egg.”

How about the Reform UK event? “White eggs in Union Jack tinfoil. Only very specific people are allowed to come;” “They’d have it in the pub. Flags everywhere, pints of beer. Sunburnt people with no tops on. And fistfights;” “There would just be one giant egg, and Nigel Farage would jump out dressed as the Easter bunny.”

And the SNP version? “It would be a very complicated process, very expensive, and then it would be delayed until the summer;” “All the eggs would be just out of reach. Or scrambled;” “They’d forget where they’d put them;” “They’d say ‘we haven’t got any eggs because England hasn’t given us the budget’.”