Liam Downer-Sanderson: Britain urgently needs a higher birthrate. A Department of Families could deliver it

Liam Downer-Sanderson is a graduate of Georgetown University and a former local council candidate. 

Britain’s declining birth rate threatens the future of our economy, public services, and overall standard of living. In 2023, women in England and Wales had just 1.44 children on average – far below the 2.1 needed to keep the population stable. This isn’t just a statistic; it’s a warning sign.

Some argue that the UK has managed fine with a low birth rate for decades, and they’re not entirely wrong. Births have continued to outnumber deaths – until now. Longer life expectancy and high levels of immigration have kept the system afloat.

But those safety nets are fraying. Deaths are beginning to overtake births, and while mass migration has propped up the economy, it is becoming increasingly politically unpopular. ONS data projects that annual deaths will keep rising as the population ages, meaning that without a higher birth rate, Britain faces long-term demographic decline.

In 2023, for the first time since 1973 (2020 being the exception due to Covid), the UK’s population shrank without immigration. Government projections indicate that by 2042, the number of pensioners per 1,000 working-age people will rise from 305 in 2016 to 367, and the share of over-65s will grow from one in five in 2018 to one in four by 2050.

These demographic shifts will place unsustainable pressure on public services. To balance the books, future governments will have to cut spending, raise taxes, borrow more, or push up the state pension age – likely some combination of all four.

But there is another way. Instead of sleepwalking into economic decline, Britain must become a place where family life is affordable, attractive, and supported.

A Government Department for Families should be established to reverse the birth rate decline and make it easier for young people to start families. This new department would take a cross-government approach, coordinating policies on housing, childcare, tax incentives, and work-life balance to ensure family policy is at the heart of economic and social planning.

Fixing the housing market must be a priority. Homeownership among young people has collapsed, with the average house price in England now 8.3 times the median annual wage – compared to just 3.5 times in 1997. A Department for Families would work with housing policymakers to prioritise the construction of affordable family homes, streamline planning regulations, and build at scale where it makes sense. If buying a home remains out of reach for most young people, starting a family will too.

Making childcare affordable is equally critical. Britain has some of the highest childcare costs in the developed world, with parents spending up to 30 per cent of household income on childcare. By contrast, Sweden caps childcare costs at just £205 per month for three children (£102 for an only child) in addition to providing generous parental leave policies. Britain should move toward a Nordic-style childcare system, where early-years education is treated as a public good rather than a luxury.

Financial incentives for parents could also be introduced. Other countries have successfully used targeted policies to reverse falling birth rates. Hungary offers £26,000 interest-free loans to couples who have children, with lifetime tax exemptions for mothers of four or more children, boosting its birth rate from 1.23 to 1.56. France provides universal child benefits, tax breaks, and subsidised childcare, keeping its birth rate one of the strongest in Europe at 1.83.

The UK must learn from these examples, introducing lump-sum payments for parents, generous tax breaks, and workplace policies that promote work-life balance. For too long, family policy in Britain has been fragmented across different government departments without a clear, joined-up strategy.

A Department for Families would ensure that boosting birth rates and supporting young families becomes a national priority, integrating housing, childcare, tax, and employment policies into a single, coordinated effort. We can’t implement every policy from abroad, but we should explore affordable and practical solutions that make the most sense for this country, whether that means expanding childcare subsidies, offering tax incentives, or making homeownership more accessible.

The time to act is now. This isn’t just about social policy – it’s about securing Britain’s economic future. If we fail to address this crisis, we face two choices: continue relying on mass migration to sustain the economy, or accept economic stagnation and a long-term decline in living standards.

Our approach to this issue will shape Britain’s future: its economy, communities, and national identity. We can’t afford to look the other way.