James Crouch: If the Tories are to capitalise on the 2050 net zero target, the rhetoric will need to change

James Crouch is head of policy and public affairs research at Opinium.

Kemi Badenoch’s recent speech on the Policy Renewable Porgramme saw two key points get media coverage: that achieving net zero emissions by 2050 is impossible and that pursuing such a target will inflict economic damage on the UK.

While there is plenty of political space for the first point, the Conservative leader will need to change her assertion to make serious political capital out of it as an issue.

Badenoch’s first point – that reaching net zero by 2050 is simply not possible – is an argument that resonates with a significant proportion of the population. Recent polling from Opinium conducted after her speech reveals that 57 per cent of the public believes the UK’s current net zero target is unachievable, with only 26 per cent of people optimistic that the goal is achievable. Among Conservative voters, this even more strongly felt, with 71 per cent agreeing that the 2050 target is unachievable.

This strong base of support presents Badenoch with an opportunity to get her argument across; her position taps into a widely held belief that the goal, though set in law, is not going to be met no matter what measures are taken.

However, Badenoch’s second proposition – that the drive toward net-zero emissions will be economically damaging – is a much more difficult sell. Only 29 per cent of people believe that the push for net zero will harm the economy, while 24 per cent think it will have a positive impact and 23 per cent feel it will have no effect either way.

Even among Conservative voters, there’s a significant split, with 44 per cent believing net zero will harm the economy, but 41 per cent thinking it will either have no effect or a positive impact. In short, appearing to rubbish net zero as an economy-busting mistake is actually a highly controversial point.

Despite the challenge of selling the economic argument, Badenoch’s speech did also talk about securing a more reliable energy future. This is a key area where the Conservative Party needs to make progress. Labour currently holds a notable advantage over the Conservatives on this aspect of energy policy, with 27 per cent of voters trusting Labour to invest in future energy generation, compared to only 19 per cent who trust the Conservatives.

This is the gap which Badenoch and her team need to address, but the low numbers for either side suggest that there is space for the Conservatives can make a compelling case for a clear, practical vision for the country’s energy future.

The difficulty, however, lies in the way Badenoch connects Net Zero policies with economic harm. By framing it as something that will inevitably lead to economic decline, she risks alienating voters who still acknowledge climate change as a real issue and expect the government to respond appropriately.

At present, media headlines sound as if Badenoch is arguing we should abandon Net Zero altogether, which would be at odds with where the public is on this. Additionally, by focusing on the negative economic consequences of the current target, it becomes challenging to present an easily explainable alternative – for what alternative target would address climate change without undermining the economy?

Net Zero is an area where the Conservative Party has potential to appeal to voters who are dissatisfied with Labour’s approach to energy policy. However, if Badenoch is to capitalise on this, she will need to shift her rhetoric. Instead of sounding like she is arguing against the concept altogether, she should focus on how the Conservatives can achieve a better, more practical energy policy.

But that involves a significant shift in emphasis. It won’t be the tone that the Tory leader is more comfortable with, but is simply not where voters currently are.