Florida’s special elections test Trump’s GOP in deep-red congressional districts

The 2025 special election cycle for Congress kicks off Tuesday in Florida, where Republicans are well-positioned to defend seats in a pair of deep-red districts and beef up their slim House majority.

Meanwhile, Democrats hope they can pull off a miracle win or at least notch a moral victory that suggests President Trump’s post-election glow is dimming.

The race between Republican state Sen. Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil, a math teacher, in the 6th Congressional District has garnered some additional attention thanks to the fundraising disparity and a recent poll showing the race is closer than anticipated.

The winner will fill the seat previously held by Mike Waltz, who now serves as Mr. Trump’s national security adviser. The district is north of Orlando and includes Daytona Beach and Palm Coast.

Tapping into the national Democratic angst over the second Trump administration, Mr. Weil has raised $10 million, easily outpacing Mr. Fine, who has pulled in roughly $1 million.

A recent St. Pete Polls survey showed that Mr. Fine holds a 4-point lead over Mr. Weil.

The good news for Mr. Fine is that he has the support of Mr. Trump, who carried the congressional district by 30 points in the November election.

Mr. Trump also endorsed Republican Jimmy Patronis in his race against Democrat Gay Valimont, a gun control activist, in the 1st Congressional District in Florida’s panhandle, which has a large population of military veterans.

Mr. Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer, has leaned into the Trump endorsement in a district the president carried by 37 points.

Ms. Valimont has also outraised Mr. Patronis, in part by highlighting the anger over the Trump administration’s push to downsize the federal government and claims it harms veterans.

“I am going to Congress to make sure people understand that what is happening right now is hurting real people,” she said at a recent campaign event. “Where are the Republicans not standing up for our vets?”

The winner of the race will take over the seat that Rep. Matt Gaetz defended in the November election by 32 points over Ms. Valimont.

However, Mr. Gaetz resigned from Congress after he was nominated for attorney general and later withdrew from consideration amid allegations of sexual misconduct.

On Tuesday, the national parties will also be focused on a state Supreme Court race in the swing state of Wisconsin, which is being billed as more of a barometer for the political environment two months into Mr. Trump’s second term.

Democrats are looking for opportunities to rev up their ground troops. Last week, they celebrated after their candidate narrowly flipped a state Senate seat in Pennsylvania that the GOP had held for 136 years.

But Maureen O’Toole, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s campaign arm, threw cold water on the idea that Democrats will have anything to celebrate after Tuesday’s election in Florida.

“Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis will be Members of Congress,” Ms. O’Toole said. “Everything else is just noise.”