Democrats see silver lining to layoffs in Virginia as they seek to rally voters for governor’s race

Democrats are betting the flurry of pink slips President Trump has doled out to tens of thousands of federal workers and the blowback from it will give them a boost in the Virginia gubernatorial race, as they look to rebound from a disastrous election cycle and repair their party’s mangled image.

The Elon Musk-led effort to slash spending in Washington with deep cuts to the government’s civilian workforce, federal agencies, and programs is hitting Virginia harder than most states because it is home to more than 144,000 federal workers.

“The federal jobs cuts put the eventual Republican nominee for governor in a very tight spot,” said Mark Rozell, political science professor at George Mason University. “That is, how to message support for those affected by the jobs cuts while not looking disloyal to the president and the MAGA base.”

Jeff Ryer, chair of the 1st Congressional District Republican Party, said there is something to that argument, but only to a point.

“It is a plus for them, but it’s not an over-comeable plus,” Mr. Ryer said.

By the time the dust settled from the federal layoffs, Mr. Ryer said, Mr. Trump could check off other popular boxes. For instance, he said the president’s pledge in his joint address to “resurrect the American shipbuilding industry” could boost his standing in Hampton Roads, home to several shipyards.

Mr. Ryer also said it is essential to recognize that polls and elections underscore that most federal workers impacted by the firings “are overwhelmingly Democratic in the first place.”

The race to replace Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is in its early stages.

Abigail Spanberger, a former intelligence officer who represented the 7th Congressional District in Congress, is expected to win the Democratic nomination. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears is favored to win the GOP nomination, but she may face challenges from a couple of Trump-inspired Republicans trying to qualify for the primary ballot.

The gubernatorial contest traditionally has served as a political bellwether that will set the tone for the 2026 midterm elections.

Before Mr. Trump’s joint address to Congress, the Democratic National Committee blasted out an email condemning the federal firings and funding freezes as “disastrous” for Virginia.

Sen. Tim Kaine and other Democrats in the Virginia congressional delegation brought along recently laid-off federal workers — including military veterans — as guests for the speech. Sen. Mark Warner sent a fundraising email the next day saying the Trump administration has “forced thousands of federal workers to face uncertain, frightening futures.”

“Donald Trump is attacking Virginia’s economy and workforce,” said Susan Wicker, chair of the Virginia Democrats. “This crisis extends beyond federal workers losing their jobs—it also devastates small businesses that depend on these communities and disproportionately impacts disabled veterans who are being unjustly laid off.” 

“With the unemployment rate in our Commonwealth set to skyrocket, every Virginian will feel the consequences,” she said.

Former state Sen. John “Chap” Petersen, who served as a Democrat but feels the party has lost its way, is more skeptical of the impact. Mr. Petersen said it remains to be seen whether the firings will resonate beyond the Northern Virginia enclaves rife with federal employees who tend to vote Democratic.

“There is sort of this initial pushback, but on balance I think most Americans agree, regardless of party, that the federal government has grown too fast in the last few years, it is unsustainable and a lot of it is unaccountable,” Mr. Peterson said. “People are on the federal payroll, and we don’t know what they do.”

“Arguably, it makes people more motivated, but I think federal workers were probably voting every cycle anyway,” he said of the firings.

The 2024 election was the latest reminder that the economy sets the climate for national elections, and Mr. Trump beat Vice President Kamala Harris on that front.

However, less than a month into his second term, surveys show that his approval rating is lower in Virginia than nationwide. Analysts say if Virginians sour further on Mr. Trump following the layoffs, Republicans could face some headwinds this fall.