Charlie Cole: Jenrick is right to highlight the pace of immigration-induced demographic change

Charlie Cole has a keen interest in British politics, with a focus on immigration.

In the 2021 Census, 74.4 per cent of England & Wales was White British – but due to immigration and declining birth rates, this group is set to become a minority within 30 years

We all know that immigration is too high, it consistently ranks as one of the top issues and according to YouGov, as of the 23 February 2025, which is the latest tracker update as of writing, 69 per cent of Brits think immigration has been too high.

This includes 91 per cent of Conservative voters, 58 per cent of Labour voters, 59 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters, 54 per cent of remain voters, 55 per cent of Londoners and even 52 per cent of those aged 18-24 – across the entire spectrum, people agree that immigration has been too high.

People are right to be concerned about such high-levels of immigration, British voters have, for the past twenty odd years, consistently voted in elections and referendums to reduce immigration, yet have been repeatedly ignored by both Labour and Conservatives governments.

Common talking points amongst politicians and those in the political commentator landscape include the pressure this has on public services, NHS waiting times, local schools, social housing, impact on the rental market, increases in crime, issues with social cohesion etc..

But one point that rarely gets mentioned is the scale of demographic change happening in the UK and the speed at which it is taking place. Robert Jenrick, who noted in a recent article this a ‘disorienting rate of change’, which is particularly noticeable in cities and densely populated urban areas, is a (for now) rare exception.

Few would argue that the UK should become some type of ethnostate, but the speed and scale at which this demographic change is occurring, and the lack of any democratic approval for such a rapid change, deserves further analysis and debate.

Before proceeding, I should clarify what White British refers to, it is an ethnic category used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and other Governmental departments to refer to those who are white and are English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish, or British — effectively the group you could call the native or indigenous population.

Every year the ONS releases data on births in England & Wales for the previous year, the latest data is available for 2023. If you want to see data on births for previous years, you have to download a different dataset that contains the ethnicity of births in England & Wales from 2007 to 2022, I do not believe this data was collected prior to 2007.

Using the data from these documents, I have created a chart showing the percentage of births in England & Wales that are White British, from 2007 to 2023.

If we look at 2013 to 2023, White British births, as a percentage, have declined by 8.49 per cent and if we go from the peak in 2010 at 66.25 per cent, White British births have declined by 10.69 per cent — I’m no statistician, but on current course, I would not be surprised if we see White British births fall below 50 per cent before 2030.

We can see similar patterns from the Department of Education, which records ethnicity for all pupils in England. That data is available here and goes back to the 2015 – 2016 school year. It’s possible there might be data prior to this, but I can’t find it published anywhere.

As with before, I have created a chart plotting the percentage of pupils in England that are White British, from the 2015 – 2016 school year, up-to the most recent 2023 – 2024 school year.

From the 2015/16 school year to the 2023/24 school year, we can see an 8 per cent decline for the White British cohort in less than 10 years. If we assume immigration & birth rate trends will continue, and on current trajectory, there’s no reason to assume they won’t, we can estimate that White British children will become a minority in schools in England, sometime around 2035.

The Centre for Migration Control think tank recently published that 32.4 per cent of the UK’s population will be a first or second generation immigrant by 2035 and in 2010, Professor David Coleman, a demographer from Oxford University, predicted that White Britons would become a minority by 2066. David Coleman’s prediction was based on immigration and birth rates at that time — since then, White British births have declined and immigration has increased massively, especially since 2021, the so called ‘Boriswave’.

Recently on GB News, Steven Edginton spoke with another demographer, Paul Morland, he believes that given current birth rates and levels of immigration, White Britons will become an ethnic minority within 30 years — this takes us to 2055, 11 years earlier than David Coleman’s prediction.

This level of demographic change and the speed at which it’s occurring, should be receiving much wider attention and debate amongst politicians, media, commentators and the general public. When I found out about these statistics, I was shocked, and everyone I’ve shown them to has been equally as shocked. This is a major demographic change that is happening in this country, at rapid speed, without any real debate or democratic approval, which people don’t truly appreciate the scale of.

In a little under 50 years, the White British ethnic group is projected, on current trends, to go from being a comfortable majority to a minority, despite British people never voting for this – no politician or political party has ever campaigned on increasing immigration to the point that it makes White British people an ethnic minority in their own country, yet on the current course, this is going to happen.

Sir Trevor Phillips recently attended an event by The Equiano Project on Britain’s Changing Identity, during his segment he noted:

“By the middle of this century, half of Britain’s population, which should be about 80 million people, will be foreign born, the children of foreign born parents or the grandchildren of foreign born grandparents”, going on to say that this “leads to a very different Britain”.

If the majority of Brits, who are White British, are content with becoming an ethnic minority in their own country, fine, I’m not arguing the UK should become an ethnostate, but I think there should be an open & honest debate about this, because at present, this debate is not and has not happened, and given the scale of social and cultural changes these projections would lead to and the speed at which they are occurring, this is wrong.

If you agree that there needs to be more discussion and debate around this, I would ask that you share this article, talk about it with friends and family, write to your MP and ask what they think, for such a major and rapid change, we deserve more than we are currently getting.