Are Reform serious people? Or are they just making a good job of sounding it

“I love you…but you are not serious people!” (Succession – Sky Atlantic)

Brian Cox playing Logan Roy, in Succession, a TV hit about the power dynamics between a dysfunctional family vying for control of his self-built media empire. In a key scene he delivers this truth bomb to his recalcitrant and bruised brood.

Within that line, and with no love, lies the main attack every other party will throw at Reform UK.

Now recent converts can dismiss that out of hand, I’d be disappointed if they didn’t – but the people around Nigel Farage who help and advise him, do not dismiss it.

I’ve always distrusted very tribal politics, even amongst Tories. It blinds you and makes you less effective.

My biggest complaint about the Corbyn saga was the serried ranks of brocialists who in their desperation to insist magic-grandpa was always right and faultless, suspended rational thought and critical analysis. It made every strategy they came up with weaker. So I have friends in all parties and Reform is no different. I like listening to what others think – and anyway it happens to be my job. However I know a lot of the team around Nigel Farage and have for years. Two of them introduced me to my wife!

So after raising a glass to the future with my friend and former staff writer William Atkinson this week, I moved within a well-known Westminster watering hole to join a crowd of Nigel’s young Turks, men and women, some very close to him, to talk about the divide on the right.

Coincidentally William had set the key question in his usual style with a piece he wrote about Reform in the Telegraph in June 2024.

“Farage is great at identifying problems – stifling taxes, ridiculous immigration levels, climate lunacy- but providing genuine solutions would be too much like hard work. If Reform UK ever got into power, the Sir Humphreys of the Whitehall Machine would stump him within a week. Rather than resolve Britain’s problems, he’d soon decamp from Number 10 to drown his sorrows in The Red Lion.”

It’s an acid attack, but within it is exactly what Reform knows it’s going to face for a while. It is basically:

Are they ‘serious people’?

Firstly, they took the accusation seriously. This wasn’t going to be a row.

Not that they agree with William- but away from social media, and the studios, they know it is a question they need to answer. Some are well aware that Government is fiendishly complicated, and they know most of them have never done it, and that’s a potential vulnerability. I pushed further – if they want to rewire the whole system, they’re joining a queue. The Conservatives have been saying it since they were booted out, and Labour have been discovering, the hard way, they need to do the same.

Ripping wires out is easy, but you need to know the blueprints of the machine that doesn’t work, to rewire it so it does, and they don’t. They acknowledge that. One of the most senior of the crowd, someone close to Farage, was certainly joking when he said:

“Well we’ll just pull out of any agreements, any organisations, and get rid of any officials in either the civil service or judiciary who stop us doing what needs to be done”

He was smiling wryly, daring me to take him at his word. He knows that’s very popular stuff but isn’t actually a solution. He also knows that it will be serious policy work that will unlock the system and a wider vote. So just like the Tories the voter demand will be “show us your plans because good vibes isn’t enough”

What about expanding recruitment of former Tory staffers to people who’ve been in Government? Opinion was divided. It’s like the “settled for now” question of any Tory-Reform deal. No side says they want one – yet. Ok, so what about defectors?

Politicos know the significance of defections depends on who it is. They haven’t had anyone significant yet but when I ran a list of names that might fit that bill (no I don’t know if they are considering it) the Reformers didn’t seem that bothered. They weren’t being coy, they just didn’t think they were of much value.

Indeed one of their more glamorous commentators went further:

“I say we don’t take any. Do it ourselves. We don’t need them. We’re different. No, no Tory defectors”

Not everyone agreed – it depends on the shock waves it might generate – but it’s clearly a point of internal debate.

I understand her point. They’re doing well in the polls; they don’t want to ‘dilute’ the brand. They’re buoyant – which led me to ask

“Do you think some of your bigger voices risk their comments morphing into hostage-to-fortune hubris”

I was surprised- they agreed. To the risk.

I’ve long said it’s hypocrisy that kills you in politics, I’d add – people aren’t wooed by hubris. It gets up their noses.

They seemed to know it and one wonders if some prominent ‘keyboard warriors’ might be privately told to ‘tone it down’. That signals a seriousness about optics and perception.

One young man in the team, smart in suit and outlook added

“Agreed, some of the tone could be off putting – if we overcook it. It’s a marathon not a sprint, but if you’re doing well, it’s not surprising some of that gets expressed strongly. We know tone needs watching so it doesn’t come back on us but then… I think confidence breeds confidence”

Certainly Reform are serious about going all out, all the way.

They know the electoral maths. An outright majority in 2029 is a big ask. They are serious about fundraising, but figures just released show any suggestion they are out gunning the Tories on money is wide of the mark by some margin. Quibbling about that and membership numbers seems a spat best left in the past.

Much of what I heard gave the impression they are serious about what they need to do, within the party, and how that translates on the ground. Council seats would be a start, and they’ll do well in May. Farage has always followed the Paddy Ashdown model of building the ground ops, and focus on that shows seriousness too.

But there’s still doubt and – Rupert Lowe, of all people has raised it.

One of their own five MPs has aimed, publicly, at Farage’s achilles-heel. In an interview in the Daily Mail he’s punched the policy bruise and thrown doubt on whether the party and Nigel will do the necessary work.

It’s a bruise because the energy policy launch was everything Reform did not need. Torn to shreds in hours, even by people who might’ve been given it a thumbs up had they not found more holes in it than a Swiss cheese. Cue Logan Roy. The people I spoke to quietly eye rolled, something to be buried – like electricity cables.

Just as it is for the Tories – policy really is key.

So, are Reform serious people?

I’ve enough respect for Reform to say they seem serious about being taken seriously.

I’m not sure they, like the Conservatives have yet shown the necessary requisites to solidly seal the deal. The Conservatives, whatever you may think of them, will put in the hard work on policy – whatever you end up thinking of those policies.

Reform will need to match that work to fend off what will come from all sides – that looking and sounding serious is one thing – being serious is another.