European lawfare could lead to a new war

Vice President J.D. Vance’s recent speech at the Munich Security Conference struck a powerful chord. He called out Western European leaders for their use of lawfare—the weaponization of legal systems—as a political tool and a threat to democracy. How ironic that four decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, democracy and freedom now find themselves under siege from the very forces that once championed them. (RELATED: ‘New Sheriff In Town’: JD Vance Calls Globalists Out To Their Faces Over Mass Censorship)

In America, this isn’t a foreign concept. We have watched as Democrats, working in concert with politicized prosecutors and courts, relentlessly pursued criminal cases against Donald Trump. Their aim was clear: to imprison the leading opposition candidate and prevent him from running for president. It was an abuse of the justice system and a dangerous precedent—a political power play aimed at denying the American people their right to choose their leader in a free election.

This was a breathtaking abuse of justice and an unprecedented assault on democracy. No American president has endured what Trump has faced.

But this war on Trump—and democracy—is no longer confined to American soil.

Vice President Vance was right: lawfare has crossed the Atlantic. In Europe, the political left is using the same tactics to go after pro-Trump, populist conservative leaders—candidates who have either won elections or are poised to do so.

To stop these candidates or undo election results, left-wing European elites have adopted a simple formula: “If we fail, the winner goes to jail.” And with that, they aim to bar these leaders from running for or holding public office.

This anti-democratic ideology operates under a dangerous premise: that the people’s choice is valid only if it aligns with the left’s agenda. Conservative populists are routinely branded “pro-Putin” or accused of “Russian collusion” to discredit them.

The French and Romanian Cases

Just two weeks ago, a French court sentenced Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s conservative National Rally party and a leading presidential candidate, to four years in prison and barred her from running for office for five years. Her alleged crimes? Political actions that are not only routine in French politics but are also tolerated when committed by left-wing politicians.

A month earlier, Romania’s High Court disqualified Călin Georgescu, a populist conservative and frontrunner in the upcoming May 2025 presidential election. His crime? He won the first round of voting in November 2024. The court refused to recognize his victory and rescheduled the election, barring him from participating.

Crisis in the Republic of Srpska

But perhaps the most alarming case is unfolding in the Republic of Srpska, the autonomous Serbian entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina. Nestled in Southeastern Europe, Bosnia rarely makes U.S. headlines—but it should. The region is a tinderbox of unresolved ethnic and religious tensions.

The scars from the Bosnian War of the 1990s, which claimed over 100,000 lives, are still fresh. Today, fears persist among Christian Orthodox Serbs and Catholic Croats that the Bosniak Muslim majority is determined to create a unitary Islamic state, erasing their autonomy and religious identity.

This fragile balance is now being disrupted by Christian Schmidt, the German diplomat who serves as the international community’s High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Acting with sweeping, unelected authority, Schmidt has increasingly inserted himself into Bosnia’s internal affairs—most controversially, by targeting the leadership and cultural identity of the Republic of Srpska.

On December 20, 2023, Schmidt publicly warned Republika Srpska not to celebrate January 9—known as Republic of Srpska Day—stating that such observances violated the rulings of Bosnia’s Constitutional Court and his own executive order from July 1, 2023.

Despite this, President Milorad Dodik, the three-time elected leader of Republika Srpska, moved forward with the traditional holiday observance. In retaliation, Schmidt triggered criminal proceedings against him. On February 26, 2025, Dodik was sentenced to one year in prison and barred from holding public office for six years.

Dodik’s so-called offense? Honoring a regional holiday that commemorates Srpska’s 1992 founding and celebrates St. Stefan, a revered saint in the Serbian Orthodox Church, traditions that have been recognized and observed since the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords. Yet Schmidt, concerned about offending the sensibilities of the Muslim majority, unilaterally criminalized the celebration and moved to suppress it.

Reflecting the will of his people, President Dodik refused to comply. The Serbs of Srpska continued to celebrate their heritage and religion. For this, their president was convicted, sentenced, and politically exiled.

Imagine if an American president were jailed for celebrating the Fourth of July, because a foreign bureaucrat said it offended someone. Would we comply? Or resist?

Like Trump, Le Pen, and Georgescu, Dodik remains defiant. Backed by his Parliament and people, he has rejected Schmidt’s authority to imprison him and nullify the will of his voters.

Now, there is a standoff.

Europe on the Brink

The situation is perilous. A Muslim-controlled Bosnian court has issued an arrest warrant for Dodik. Schmidt requested Interpol to detain him during a diplomatic visit to Israel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Interpol refused, stating it does not act on politically motivated requests.

But the European Union escalated tensions last week by deploying 1,000 Czech troops to Bosnia, allegedly to assist in Dodik’s arrest. This is not peacekeeping—it’s provocation.

Germany’s High Representative is playing a dangerous game. The Serbs will not yield what they see as their sovereignty and identity. If Schmidt’s lawfare leads to warfare, the Balkans could once again erupt, this time while Europe is already embroiled in conflict due to the war in Ukraine.

The last time two wars simultaneously burned through Europe was in 1939, when Germany invaded Poland shortly after conquering Czechoslovakia.

The world must wake up. Bosnia is not just a regional issue—it’s a warning. The philosopher George Santayana once said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

One war in Europe is one too many. A second would be catastrophic.

Rod BRod Blagojevich is a former Democratic Governor of Illinois from 2003-2009. He currently represents the Republic of Srpska and is registered under the Foreign Agent Registration Act.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

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