How Not to be a ‘Panican’ – The American Spectator | USA News and PoliticsThe American Spectator

Here’s a fact most journalists and the economists they interview won’t admit: No one really knows what imposing tariffs on foreign countries like there’s no tomorrow will actually do to the American and global economies.

Sure, the markets are currently panicking, but unless the individuals commenting on President Donald Trump’s tariffs have suddenly acquired crystal balls, they’re just as mystified about the whole thing as the readers turning to them to try and make sense of it are. If they happen to correctly predict where we’ll be in six months, a year, or four years from now, it’ll be because they lucked out, not because they figured it out.

With all that in mind, there’s no point in writing (or much less reading) an article that tries to explain what it will mean for the economy that Trump has levied a 125 percent tariff (which is admittedly high) on China, or what it will mean now that Trump (as of this afternoon) has suddenly changed his tune and announced a three-month pause on the high tariffs for every other country, making their rate a universal 10 percent. 

There is, however, perhaps a reason to write an article warning Americans that freaking out and making a run — either to buy or to sell — on the stock markets is probably not the way to go. In the words of our president, we need to avoid turning into “panicans.” 

‘Just a Spoonful of Sugar’ or a Strong Dose of Reality

Impending economic doom is something we’ve been living with for a hot second at least since COVID, and possibly before that. Back in late 2022, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index reported that, just based on figures, the U.S. was possibly in a recession — but no recession came. In October of that year, the forecast “for a recession within the year” hit 100 percent, according to Bloomberg. 

But no recession ever happened, and by late 2023, the media was desperately trying to figure out why. Axios credited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy, while the New York Times blamed “old models of how growth and inflation relate” for incorrect predictions. By the time early 2024 rolled around, it was clear that whatever was going on with the economy, it wasn’t good for the average American. 

The problem, as the Heritage Foundation noted late last year, was that inflation made stock market gains look much better than they actually were: “While the nominal stock market gains since 2021 show an increase of 39%, this growth shrinks to just 15% when adjusted for inflation.”

All that is to say that at some point the market was going to have to adjust. There’s just no way around it, and turning into a Panican won’t make it better. Adjustment is going to be painful and it’s going to look like a lot of losses. But when it’s all over, market figures will reflect reality, and we’ll know how far we’ve fallen and how far we have to climb. 

Stop Reading the Schizophrenic News

Admittedly, it’s hard to stay sane while headlines warn that the world might just collapse under the weight of tariffs. “‘We’re Playing With Fire’: The Risks of Trump’s Tariffs on China,” reads one headline in the New York Times. “Tariffs are freezing the U.S. economy,” says the Washington Post. “The next round of Trump’s tariffs could hurt even more. Here’s what to expect,” CNN warned its readers.

Even conservatives can’t agree on what all this means. After all, the tariff rollout plan has been confusing; the markets are oscillating so quickly that it’s impossible to properly report them (by the time I was editing this piece, Trump’s tariff policy had totally changed and the Dow had rallied 2400 points); and the only thing clear about Trump’s trade policies is that nobody thinks they’ll deliver the results he keeps claiming they will.

It’s quite possible that conservatives, liberals, bankers, and economists have a point. Maybe Trump is just straight-up wrong, and his mistakes will tank our over-inflated balloon economy. It’s more than possible. But it’s not worth the rising feeling of panic to follow the minute-by-minute developments of Trump’s trade policies. 

Whether Trump gets a “Golden Age of Global Trade” or not, the whole tariff process is probably going to hurt for a bit. It’s worth reading less news to prevent your mental state from declining with the stock market.

Of course, the state of the economy is important. It directly affects the average person’s retirement funds, housing costs, grocery bills, and the income supporting all that. A recession, should we find ourselves in the midst of one, will be a bad thing for all of us. It’s certainly worth exercising some amount of worry and caution. But it is not (nor will it ever be) worth panicking over.

READ MORE by Aubrey Harris:

RIP Theodore McCarrick

Taking Down Planned Parenthood