Threats and Counter-Threats – The American Spectator | USA News and PoliticsThe American Spectator

Thanks primarily to the renewal of President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, Iran’s economy is again in the dumpster. Last week the Iranian rial was trading at a new low — more than one million rials to the U.S. dollar. When Trump first imposed his “maximum pressure campaign” on Iran during his first term, the rial was trading at about 55,000 to the dollar.

Trump’s maximum pressure campaign is an excellent tactic against Iran which could, eventually, bring about the fall of the ayatollah’s regime. The president is apparently too impatient to wait.

The Iranians have been greatly weakened by the defeat of its principle proxies, Hamas and Hizballah, at the hands of Israel, and the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaigns against another Iranian proxy, the Houthis of Yemen. Their economy is kept alive by the sale of oil to nations such as China.

But that’s not all Trump has in mind for the Iranians. Trump sent a letter to Iran’s “supreme leader,” Ayatollah Khamenei, in March seeking direct talks with Iran. Last week he repeated his threat to bomb Iran if it didn’t come to a negotiated agreement limiting its nuclear weapons program. He said, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing,” Trump said in a telephone interview. “It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.”

The ever-helpful Russian President Putin said Trump’s threats were illegal and unacceptable, threatening “irreversible consequences” if America attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Why the president wants another agreement with Iran, clearly one of the least trustworthy regimes in the world, is not at all clear.  He cancelled the Obama 2015 agreement in 2018 because it was, in his words, the “worst deal ever.” Trump and his national security team must understand that the ayatollahs’ regime hasn’t lived up to any of its diplomatic obligations since they came to power in 1979.

As this column has written repeatedly, the Iranians won’t give up their nuclear weapons program or their long-range missiles peacefully.

Iran has not only rejected direct talks with the U.S., it has responded to Trump’s threats with threats of its own. The government-controlled Iranian press is calling for Trump’s assassination and Iran has threatened to attack the U.S.-British base at Diego Garcia, which is in the middle of the Indian Ocean about 2,400 miles south of Iran. (The Brits want to give DG back to Sri Lanka, which would be a truly dumb move.)

That base is reportedly within range of Iran’s best ballistic missile and also within range of some of its drone aircraft. (It would take the drones about twenty hours’ flying time to get to Diego Garcia, making them a small threat that could be countered with relative ease.)

We have moved some six B-2 stealth bombers to Diego Garcia along with tanker aircraft to ferry them to their targets. Meanwhile, we have added a second carrier battle group to the area, the USS Carl Vinson group joining the USS Harry Truman battle group in about two weeks.

Trump’s threats and the Iranian threat against Diego Garcia are just bluster. Neither wants a direct war with the other, at least not yet.

The fact that we have many aircrews at Diego Garcia (which ain’t a great place to be stationed) doesn’t count for much. The B-2s may threaten the Iranians briefly but they won’t be able to sustain operations there for very long. While the force of six B-2s represents about a third of those aircraft, they will, in a few weeks or months, have to be withdrawn. Nor can we leave our aircraft carrier battle groups in the region indefinitely.

Going Beyond the Threats

As this column has explained, empty threats are a means by which our deterrent strategy is weakened. So where do we go from here?

Both sides are playing for time which benefits the Iranians enormously. No one really knows how close they are to deploying nuclear weapons. They may have them already and may be close to deploying them on missiles that could reach Europe and Israel.

Iran is weak but not so weak that its threats can be ignored. Its nuclear program will continue until it is forced to give it up. Its missiles, whose range can be extended, will also not be given up peacefully.

The president can, and should, keep up his maximum pressure campaign against the Iranian economy. He could, if he chose, sanction those nations and ships that transport Iranian oil. China gets about 15 percent of its oil from Iran which, during Biden’s term in office, amounted to about $140 billion. Further sanctions on China would be very complicated but must be done.

If the U.S. were to strike at Iran, it would have to be done with the intent not only of destroying its nuclear sites but the regime itself. Such a war would be long and its outcome is unclear. It would involve most of the Middle East including Israel and, possibly, Europe.

Again, Trump is an impatient man. He is apparently playing a short game while Iran, Russia, and China are playing a longer game. Trump can, if he plays the longer game that our enemies are playing, win. We need to give him time and hope he will gain the understanding to do so.

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