Business owners have dramatic shift in outlook about Trump’s tariffs

As President Donald Trump forecast a “liberating day for our country,” small businesses signaled doomed narratives were just that with a dramatic shift in economic outlook.

Prior to the 2024 presidential election, at the tail end of four years of economic hardship under the Biden-Harris administration, a majority of small businesses considered the United States was on the path to recession. Now, as corporate media suggested as much with Trump at the helm, leveraging negotiations with tariffs, positive outlooks were back and thriving ahead of an April 2 “liberation day” with reciprocal tariffs.

Late last week, RedBalloon and PublicSquare released their initial Freedom Economy Index (FEI) for 2025 which sought responses from over 50,000 business owners in 34 states between Feb. 25 and March 7. According to the survey, 68% of respondents were expecting “slow” or “robust” economic growth standing in stark contrast to the 60% who believed recession was on the way in October.

On top of that, just over 80% expressed that their outlook on the economy had either “greatly” or “somewhat” improved since the election broken down by about 50% and 30% of respondents respectively. Only 6.6% reportedly feel worse in light of the current administration’s actions on the economy and cuts with the Department of Government Efficiency.

Small business optimism is soaring

80% report a huge spike in economic faith since Nov., while 68% are now banking on robust growth for 2025—a stunning about-face from last Oct., when 57% braced for recession. https://t.co/PUfg4dcODC

— Freedom Economy (@FreedomEconIdx) March 14, 2025

The results were released ahead of the weekend where, while speaking with reporters aboard Air Force One Sunday, the president reminded that, “April 2 is a liberating day for our country.”

“We’re gonna be getting back some of the wealth that very, very foolish presidents gave away ’cause they had no clue what they were doing,” he continued while reminding me that he would have slated the tariffs to go into effect on April 1, but he didn’t want April Fool’s Day impacting the coverage.

Trump added, “It’s a liberation day for our country because we’re gonna be getting back a lot of wealth that we so foolishly gave up to other countries, including friend and foe.”

Per the polling from RedBalloon and PublicSquare, tariffs ranked “Dead last — barely a whisper” among the top concerns for businesses over the next six months with inflation taking the top spot followed by taxes, regulations, and recession.

Along with driving Mexico and Canada to address the border crisis from their sides, threats of tariffs marked a win for the president last week when Ontario Premier Doug Ford had threatened the electricity supply of around 1.5 million Americans in Michigan, Minnesota and New York.

Leveraging tariffs to the benefit of the American economy including promises of imposing more that would impact specific sectors such as aluminum and steel for auto manufacturing.

Additionally, nearly 80% ranked ending wasteful spending and shrinking the federal government as the top priority and nearly 50% were “extremely confident” that Elon Musk’s mission with DOGE would be successful.

“Small business owners pin inflation’s rampage on wild government spending — and their top ask for Trump? Slash it. Shrink the feds. Send in Elon’s DOGE crew, gunning for efficiency,” detailed the findings of the FEI. “Ending Ukraine’s war? Barely registers — dead last.”

As to where respondents wanted DOGE to focus, 34% agreed the Treasury “and its IRS wingman” should be the priority with 15% each calling out the Departments of Health and Human Services, Education and Justice.

Staff Writer

Native of Brooklyn, NY, Kevin Haggerty is a graduate of Hunter College where he studied Cultural Anthropology and Geography. An avid reader and truth seeker, he currently resides in Texas with his wife and their dog and, when he isn’t researching current events and their impacts, you’ll find him spending time with friends and family or working on his next novel.

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