Reform Still Favourite in Runcorn By-Election Betting Despite Lowe Bust Up – Guido Fawkes

Reform Still Favourite in Runcorn By-Election Betting Despite Lowe Bust Up

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The spat between Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe continues to develop hour-by-hour. More important than the fireworks on X – for campaigners of all stripes – is any real-world impact the row could have on the voters of Runcorn and Helsby…

There is as yet no by-election announced in Labour MP’s Mike Amesbury’s seat, whose ten-week prison sentence (after being convicted of assault) was turned into a suspended sentence on appeal. A by-election is not automatic – but a recall petition is due to take place in the constituency as a suspended sentence is still technically considered custodial. This process could result in a by-election if 10% of Runcorn and Helsby voters back the recall, which seems plausible…

Labour opened candidate selection rapidly last week (applications closed on Saturday). Reform has been plotting its campaign strategy for many months. Tumbleweed over at CCHQ, which recently saw its entire candidate selection team leave…

The book is now open with all bookmakers still showing Reform as the clear favourite, at around 4/7. Labour are second placed by the bookies. Any by-election would certainly be a two-horse race – though the seat should really be a straightforward win for Labour (Amesbury’s current majority is 14,696) – suggesting a pending humiliation for Keir Starmer. Reform’s current local difficulties do not seem to be changing that, at least…